Building a Smarter Forecasting Model for Sales Visibility

Challenge

Our sales pipeline at Aprios lacked clear forecasting visibility. Without a structured way to measure deal confidence or track true stage progression, executive reporting was reactive and often missed key signals.

Approach

I developed a new forecasting model that weighted projected revenue based on both sales stage and confidence level.
By standardizing definitions for each pipeline stage and building fields to track rep-assessed confidence, we created a dynamic forecast that adapted as deals moved or evolved. I also created a data dictionary that spelled out what each stage and field meant as well as what management was going to do with the data, creating a compelling reason for our reps to fill in the information. I also configured conditional logic within HubSpot that required certain fields to be filled to move on to the next stage.

I integrated this into our CRM dashboards to give leadership an at-a-glance view of likely, best-case, and worst-case scenarios.

Result

The new model dramatically improved sales visibility, allowed for more accurate revenue projections, and helped leadership make faster, more informed strategic decisions.

It also created a culture of more intentional pipeline management within the sales team.

Reflection

Good forecasts aren’t just about numbers—they're about trust. When the data is honest and structured right, everyone can lead smarter.